Political Revenge Squelched


Local elections underscored a few interesting trends. First, there was no dominant winner. Though national parties led the pack, dozens of local political forces entered local councils, creating a mixed local political landscape. There’s been a shift in the sympathies in the east – some traditional patrimonies of the former Party of Regions are now, […]

Economy Stabilizes, But Recovery is Far Away


By September, it became clear that the economy had finally stabilized.  All macro-parameters are signaling some improvement in the economic system.  In particular, in August industrial output’s decline dropped down to the single-digits (-5.8% y/y vs. -20.5% y/y in H1 2015). We observed disinflation gather momentum, as the hryvnia’s position improved and resource prices continued […]

Budget Chronicles: 2nd quarter 2015


In second quarter 2015 general budget revenues increased 41.0% y/y up, general budget spending increased 20.1% y/y. As a result, general budget surplus shrunk to UAH 12.3 billion by the end of June. In second quarter 2015 budget revenues maintained impressive growth. In particular, general budget revenues increased 41.0% y/y up to UAH 158.4 billion […]

CASE bids farewell to Luca Barbone


The former President of CASE and member of Supervisory Board of CASE Ukraine Dr. Luca Barbone, aged 62, passed away on September 1, 2015 after short but dramatic struggle with cancer. An Italian national but man of the world, Dr. Barbone grew up in Milan and graduated from Bocconi University in 1976. In 1985 he obtained […]

War Aggravates Economic Problems


Intensified fighting around Donetsk and Luhansk triggered a 12.1% y/y industrial output slump in July. The Luhansk oblast reported a 56% y/y decline in industrial production, while the Donetsk oblast’s output fell 28.5% y/y that month. In August, military forces intensified their operations, as the Ukrainian Army shut down the last supply lines from Russia […]

Default Evaded; Progress in Sight


On July 24th the Ministry of Finance paid a $120 million coupon on its Eurobond, which postponed feared default. The story is still long from over; however, the decision to pay on debts improves chances for no default scenario. Meanwhile we see a desperate fight on, between the old and new Ukraine.  Badly-needed changes reformers […]

Fragile Stability


Ukraine’s economic situation has improved significantly. GDP performance is still horrendous (at -17.2% y/y in Q1); however, the main reason for this development is the loss of the Eastern Donbas. Simultaneously, the economic position of the rest of mainland Ukraine has stabilized. The CAD narrowed to $265 million in the first four months of 2015; […]

Budget Chronicles: 1st quarter, 2015


Suddenly, Ukraine’s fiscal condition improved significantly in the first quarter of 2015. Budget revenue increased by 25.0 percent year over year, and budget surplus reached 3.9 percent of GDP. The consolidated budget’s revenue for the first quarter of 2015 totaled 140.3 billion UAH, which is 25.0 percent more than for the first quarter of 2014, […]

Read all news