Will Ukraine Fall?


Ukraine is approaching a very turbulent period. In addition to aggravated economic problems, there are unprecedented social and political developments that bode ill for the 2015 presidential elections. President Viktor Yanukovitch clearly won’t give up power without a fight. The representatives of the ruling group have already started discussing this openly. Ukrainians clearly won’t tolerate Yanukovitch, and his family, for another five years.  So, on top of aggravated economic problems, that political season could bring a violent civil confrontation.  That means that, over the next 18 months, we see elevated risk of a ‘sudden stop’ — driven by expanding economic problems, and social outrage. More about recent tendencies you can read in our new report “Will Ukraine Fall?”. The full report could be obtained through subscription at Global Source (  Trial access is available.

Summary of Economic Overview

July 30, 2013