Macroeconomic forecast

What to expect in the State budget 2017


Ukrainian government should submit the draft State budget 2017 to the Parliament soon. Currently, the Ministry of Finance prepares the final numbers. State budget is crucial for predominant part of our fellow citizens (see “Size of the State”). Hence, let us make projections guess what to expect in the State Budget 2017.

Realistic macroeconomic forecast is crucial for sound budget formulation. According to the Budget Code of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance should base State budget on macroeconomic forecast prepared by the Ministry of Economy. According to the macroeconomic forecast prepared by the Ministry of Economy, in 2017, Ukrainian real GDP will grow by 3%, and inflation will reach 8.1%. Is it realistic? We have somewhat different projections. We are not that optimistic as Ukrainian government. Instead we forecast real GDP growth in 2017 at 2.5% and CPI to increase by 10.7%.

Read the full article by Natalia Leschenko, CASE Ukraine economist on `Ukrainska Pravda` online newspaper [in ukrainian]

August 22, 2016