CASE Ukraine`s executive director Dmytro Boyarchuk forecast in the article for ‘Novoe Vremia’ media outlet the Ukrainian Hryvnia`s future: a complete collapse of currency will not take place, but it will weaken its position within 5%.
The main reason for this tendency is high budget expenditures. We currently observe significant cash balances on the accounts of the state treasury. At the beginning of November, it amounted up to UAH 48 billion – about 1.8% of GDP.
This is a temporary factor, expected and even habitual for Ukraine. Of course, there will be consequences: it is a certain pressure on inflation, as well as an increase in prices for imported goods.
It is unlikely that the course of the Hryvnia will be affected by the fact that the mission of the IMF now pays a regular visit to Ukraine. I think the Fund experts came to look at the 2018 draft budget whether it meets their requirements.
As for this year`s IMF next tranche, it will not come true. We should expect an increase in gas prices for the population.