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New issue of economic monitoring

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Over the last month more risks showed up for the domestic economy.  Firstly, the aggravating tendencies at the two largest markets of the world – US and Eurozone – promise multiple hardships for such small and export-oriented economies as Ukraine’s.  Secondly, the developments around Tymoshenko trial give no favour to the country and its economy: the foreigners do not care who rules the country but it is critical for them to see free political competition, which signals about fair game in business.  In contrast leveraging violence with respect to political competitor downgrades investment attractiveness of the country.  Thirdly, the recent decision to keep utility tariffs unchanged, effectively, kills the last hope for resuming IMF program this fall, which means more balance of payments problems and upgraded currency risks through the upcoming months.  All in all, we expect a tough fall 2011 for the country.  More about recent tendencies you can read in our new report “More Mistakes”. The full report could be obtained through subscription at Global Source (www.globalsourcepartners.com).  Trial access is available.

Summary of Economic Overview

August 12, 2011