At the start of the year, Ukraine faced two contradictory trends. On the one hand, exports picked up substantially as metal prices soared. On the other, the trade blockade of occupied Donbas came at a price. The two trends are more or less equal in size, although we expect metal prices to roll back in H2 2017, while trade with occupied Donbas is unlikely to resume in the foreseeable future. Against this backdrop, we adjusted our GDP forecast for 2017 down to 1.8% y/y, from 2.4% y/y. More about economic perspectives, please, read at our last quarterly report “Links Cut to Occupied Donbas Likely to Stymie Growth”.
The full report could be obtained through subscription at Global Source.
Trial access is available.