Fragile Stability

Stones bending

Ukraine’s economic situation has improved significantly. GDP performance is still horrendous (at -17.2% y/y in Q1); however, the main reason for this development is the loss of the Eastern Donbas. Simultaneously, the economic position of the rest of mainland Ukraine has stabilized. The CAD narrowed to $265 million in the first four months of 2015; officials report that the state budget has seen an impressive surplus of UAH 19.4 billion ($900 million) for the year through May; and the hryvnia has not only calmed down, but has shown signs of strengthening. These data lead us to conclude that Ukraine has hit rock bottom, and that in H2 we can expect improving statistics.  More about economic perspectives, please, read at our last quarterly report “Fragile Stability”. The full report could be obtained through subscription at Global Source (   Trial access is available.

Ukrainian Economic Outlook

July 1, 2015