Navigating a Cold Peace


The “Truce treaty” with the separatists has left Ukraine in a very unclear position. On one hand, President Petro Poroshenko says this step was crucial to halting further Russian advances into Ukrainian territory (though the Russian Army’s heavy casualties were probably the real reason). On the other hand, it created a Transnistria-style gray zone in Ukrainian territory, whose aim is to prevent Ukraine from executing a smooth political and economic recovery. Apparently, Poroshenko pushed forward with this plan largely to please his Western partners. Yet he was also being mindful of the upcoming parliamentary elections, which required, in his words, a “season of silence,” and some success stories Poroshenko could use to win votes for his party. More about economic perspectives, please, read at our last quarterly report “Navigating a Cold Peace”. The full report could be obtained through subscription at Global Source ( Trial access is available.

Ukrainian Economic Outlook

October 1, 2014