Macroeconomic forecast

“Very good.” Hot phase of the budget process started

ekonompravda

When commenting to the Ekonomichna Pravda, Executive Director of CASE Ukraine Dmytro Boyarchuk has evaluated the possibility of the revenue part in the Budget 2017 figures, which were laid by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine.

Earlier, the Finance Ministry and Tax Office revenue part forecasts have dispersed, Dmitry Boyarchuk says. According to him, the Ministry was more optimistic in its evaluations. However, the figures budgeted exceed even that previously planned ones by the Ministry of Finance.

‘All the figures look very realistic, but we have some different predictions about macroeconomic indicators. We expect that 2017 GDP growth will reach 2.5%, a rate – 29.4 UAH per USD, inflation gets higher – 10.7%,’ executive director of CASE Ukraine shares his evaluations.

According to him, it is because of the faster rate of inflation and higher monetary rate the import transactions` (excise, VAT) tax revenues may be higher than it is planned by the Ministry of Finance.

‘We have very divergent figures for the rate of inflation and exchange rate. Until now figures, which are laid for in 2018-2019, are more like an exercise in how to count something, than a realistic plan,’ summarizes Dmytro Boyarchuk.

Read the full on Ekonomichna Pravda [in ukrainian].

September 20, 2016