IMF tranche: Will Ukraine Cope with Crisis


In an article for Forbes Ukraine, Senior Economist of CASE Ukraine Volodymyr Dubrovsky explained what kind of changes to the monetary policy the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has made.

 Lending resumption is a very good signal for businessmen investing capital as well as for all international donors in Ukraine. The new Cabinet Council fulfills those obligations, which were taken by the Government.

Now you can expect reduced panicky attitudes regarding the Hryvnya rate. It will be easier to mobilize investments. As predicted, the US Dollar will cost 28 UAH by the end of the year. But, to be honest, it seems to me that this forecast is wrong. The current rate might continue till the end of the year.

The main risk factor is a need for purchasing natural gas in winter. But on the other hand, if we receive the financing now, the national currency rate could leave unchanged.

IMF`s tranche serves as a signal for the double-sided donors and private investors.

Having waited for the IMF`s decision, the NBU has at that day softened exchange restrictions and on the 15th of September lowered interest rates.

Read the full article by Volodymyr Dubrovsky on Forbes Ukraine [in ukrainian]

September 16, 2016